The renewable energy landscape in Texas has hit a significant milestone. For the first time in the state’s history, solar power generation has eclipsed coal, making it an extraordinary month for solar output in March. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which manages the grid in the Lone Star State, saw solar energy contribute a substantial 3.26 million megawatt-hours to the grid, overshadowing coal’s contribution of 2.96 million megawatt-hours.
Solar’s Market Share Soars While Coal Dwindles
On a broader scale, the market share for coal-generated power has plummeted to a record low, dipping below 10% to settle at just over 9%. This declining trajectory for coal’s dominance initiated over a decade ago but has accelerated markedly since the emergence of solar in the state’s energy data from 2016-17, as highlighted by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
In a recent report, IEEFA emphasized the change in Texas’s energy production patterns. Solar energy’s share of total ERCOT generation surpassed 10% for the month, another unprecedented achievement. Texas, leading the nation in solar capacity, witnessed an impressive 56% year-over-year increase in solar generation in March 2024, with 3.26 million MWh produced—a glowing testament to its robust growth.
Anticipating Expansion in the Solar Sector
Focusing on the future of energy production in Texas, there’s anticipation for further expansion in solar capacity. As it stands, Texas boasts a formidable 22,710 megawatts of operational solar capacity. Growth projections indicate that by the end of 2024, an increase of nearly one-third is expected, with an additional 7,168 MW of solar capacity slated to come online. This anticipated growth corresponds to projects secured by interconnection agreements and the necessary funding to integrate into the ERCOT grid.
The expansion doesn’t stop there. Looking even further ahead to 2025, an influx of solar projects with a total capacity of 20,932 MW is at a similar development stage. Potentially, thousands more megawatts remain in preliminary stages of development, painting a bright future for solar energy in the state.
Coal’s Downward Trend Continues
On the other end of the spectrum, coal continues its descent in the energy market. Historically, from 2003 to 2014, coal-powered anywhere from 33% to 40% of ERCOT’s demands. In a sharp contrast, by 2023, the coal generation had dwindled to fulfill only 13.9% of the ERCOT system’s demand.
According to the IEEFA research, the declining trend of coal usage is consistent and not merely a result of a few months of low output. The reduction is apparent across the board, including during peak demand periods like the hot summer months.
A Nationwide Shift in Energy Production
This transformation isn’t confined to Texas. Nationally, the Energy Information Administration‘s grid monitor data show that for each day of March, coal’s contribution to national electricity generation was below 15%, setting new lows in coal use for electric power generation. Notably, on March 29th, coal’s market share plummeted to an all-time daily low of 11.25%.
Traditionally, April and May were the months witnessing the lowest national market shares for coal. The recent data, however, suggest that coal’s dominance could retreat into the single digits during the spring months, according to the IEEFA researchers—an indication that the energy landscape across the United States is actively evolving toward renewable sources.
