The recent statements made by the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) regarding the peak demand for fossil fuels have caused quite a stir. While the IEA predicts that each of the three fossil fuels will reach its peak before 2030, the oil and gas industry insiders at the World Petroleum Congress meeting in Calgary seem to be in denial. However, it is essential to look beyond the industry’s biased perspective and examine the data from countries like China, where the future of energy is already being shaped.
In the past, the IEA’s stance on renewables and electric cars has been criticized for its pro-oil bias. However, under the leadership of Fatih Birol, the IEA has been working to transform and update its position. As a result, their annual renewables updates have become more reliable and have gained global recognition.
Contrary to the views of industry insiders, the decline in demand for oil, gas, and coal is inevitable. This decline will have significant implications for the value of proven reserves, debt ratings, and market valuations. Nevertheless, many in the industry continue to pretend that everything is fine, refusing to acknowledge the impending reality.
To understand where the world is heading, it is crucial to examine the trends and developments in countries that are at the forefront of technological advancements. China, in particular, offers valuable insights into the future of energy. For instance, wind and solar energy have been scaling rapidly, surpassing nuclear power in terms of growth. This suggests that renewables have a much higher potential for expansion.
China’s progress in various sectors is indicative of the future direction for the rest of the world. For example, in road transportation, China has already embraced electric vehicles on a large scale, with over 1.1 million electric trucks and buses in use. In comparison, fuel cell vehicles lag significantly behind. Similarly, China is leading the way in rail electrification, with 72% of its high-speed freight and passenger rail already electrified.
The lessons from China’s advancements in different sectors should inform the climate and energy policies of every country. The idea that other nations will deviate from the successful path laid out by China is simply obstinate and without merit. It is essential to recognize that the transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy is a global movement that cannot be stopped.
Sinopec’s Revelation Marks a Turning Point
The recent announcement by Sinopec, the world’s largest oil refining and petrochemical conglomerate, that 2023 marks peak gasoline demand in China is significant. This revelation provides further evidence that peak petroleum demand has been reached in the country. With China’s high oil consumption of nearly 13 million barrels per day, the impact of this peak extends beyond its borders. In fact, the United States and Europe, with their combined oil demand representing half of the global total, have already experienced peak gasoline and diesel demand.
Furthermore, the rapid growth of electric vehicles across all segments is driving down the demand for diesel and gasoline. Fleets are transitioning to electric vehicles, rail electrification is on the rise, and smaller commercial vessels are adopting battery power. These trends indicate that the market for fossil fuels is shrinking, with no significant increase in demand in sight.
Additionally, the decline in coal demand in China dispels the notion that the fossil hydrocarbon industry has a lifeline through coal. China has been replacing inefficient coal plants with highly efficient ones and limiting the use of their coal fleet to periods of high demand. Moreover, the reduced demand for cement and steel, which rely on coal, further contributes to the declining need for fossil fuels.
The evidence from China, as well as the actions taken by major mining companies to electrify their heavy mining vehicles, indicates that the path towards electrification is unstoppable. The most developed economies have already embraced electric vehicles, and other nations will inevitably follow suit.
The Downfall of Natural Gas
Natural gas, often seen as a transition fuel, is also facing a decline. Heat pumps are replacing natural gas for building energy needs, and renewables are becoming a more efficient source of electricity generation. The increased efficiency and decreasing costs of wind and solar power make using electricity directly from these sources a more viable option. As carbon pricing becomes more prevalent, the demand for natural gas is expected to plummet.
Despite these empirical realities, the industry insiders at the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary preferred to cling to their rose-colored visions of a prosperous future. They celebrated their perceived growth industry, oblivious to the fact that they were driving over the edge of a cliff.
